Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion: Chapter 6 in <i>Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000</i>

Taylor, Janis L.-

Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion: Chapter 6 in <i>Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000</i>

Taylor, Janis L.- · 2012 · Report

The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion comprises numerous intermountain valleys and low-elevation foothill prairies spread across the western

Public-domain full text preserved in the Mountain Man Mining Library. Original source: pubs.usgs.gov.

Chapter 6 Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion cases, the valleys are conduits for some of the largest rivers in the state, including Clark Fork and the Missouri, Jefferson, Madison, Flathead, Yellowstone, Gallatin, Smith, Big Hole, Bitterroot, and Blackfoot Rivers (fig. 2). The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion also includes the "Rocky Mountain front," an area of prairies along the eastern slope of the northern Rocky Mountains. Principal land uses within the ecoregion include farming, grazing, and mining. The valleys serve as major transportation and utility corridors and also contain the majority of Montana's human population. The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion extends into 17 mostly rural counties throughout western Montana. Only three of the counties—Carbon, Yellowstone, and Missoula—are part of a metropolitan statistical area with By Janis L. Taylor Ecoregion Description The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion comprises numerous intermountain valleys and low-elevation foothill prairies spread across the western half of Montana, on both sides of the Continental Divide (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997). The ecoregion, which covers approximately 64,658 km2 (24,965 mi2), includes the Flathead Valley and the valleys surrounding Helena, Missoula, Bozeman, Billings, Anaconda, Dillon, and Lewistown (fig. 1). These valleys are generally characterized by shortgrass prairie vegetation and are flanked by forested mountains (Woods and others, 1999); thus, the valleys' biotas with regards to fish and insects are comparable. In many Status and Trends of Land Change in the Western United States—1973 to 2000 Edited by Benjamin M. Sleeter, Tamara S. Wilson, and William Acevedo U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1794-A, 2012 Figure 1. Map of Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion and surrounding ecoregions, showing land-use/land-cover classes from 1992 National Land Cover Dataset (Vogelmann and others, 2001); note that not all land-use/land-cover classes shown in explanation may be depicted on map; note also that, for this "Status and Trends of Land Change" study, transitional land-cover class was subdivided into mechanically disturbed and nonmechanically disturbed classes. Squares indicate locations of 20 x 20 km sample blocks analyzed in study. Index map shows locations of geographic features mentioned in text. Abbreviations for Western United States ecoregions are listed in appendix 2. Also shown on map are parts of two Great Plains ecoregions: Northwestern Glaciated Plains (NWGLP) and Northwestern Great Plains. See appendix 3 for definitions of land-use/land-cover classifications. Middle Rockies Northwestern Glaciated Plains NRK NRK NRK NRK MRK Northwestern Great Plains Canadian Rockies Wyoming Basin SRB NRK MRK MRK NRK NRK NWGLP SRB C A N A D A 110° 108° 112° 114° 48° 46° 44° 150 MILES 150 KILOMETERS Ecoregion boundary Sample block (10 x 10 km) Land-use/land-cover class Water Developed Transitional Mining Barren Forest Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Wetland Ice/Snow EXPLANATION Butte Virginia City Nevada City Bannack Dillon Coolidge Anaconda Helena Missoula Deer Lodge Bozeman Lewistown Billings I D A H O I D A H O M O N T A N A W Y O M I N G

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78 Status and Trends of Land Change in the Western United States—1973 to 2000 contiguous built-up areas tied to an employment center. Nearly two-thirds of Montana residents live in nonmetropolitan counties (Albrecht, 2008). Ten of the counties within the ecoregion had population growth rates greater than national averages (9-13 percent) between 1970 and 2000 (table 1). Ravalli and Gallatin Counties had the highest growth rates. Population growth was largely due to amenity-related inmigration and an economy dependent on tourism, health care, and services. Counties that had population declines, such as Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, and Meagher Counties, also had declines in agriculture and mining activity, and they had railroad closures as well. Climate varies from north to south and from the east side of the Continental Divide to the west side. However, all areas are semiarid with long cold winters and short growing seasons. In the western part of the ecoregion, Beaverhead, Bitterroot, Flathead, and Lolo National Forests provide the natural resources, particularly timber, that form the economic base for towns within nearby valleys. Mineral resources from mines in and around Anaconda, Deer Lodge, and Butte have long provided an economic base for these towns (fig. 3). Contemporary Land-Cover Change (1973 to 2000) The overall spatial change—the percentage of land area within the Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion where land cover changed at least once between 1973 and 2000—was 8.1 percent (5,252 km2). Of that total, 6.5 percent (4,203 km2) changed one time, and 1.5 percent (970 km2) changed two or more times (table 2). Compared to the amount of overall change in each of the 30 western United States ecoregions, this ecoregion falls in the middle (fig. 4). Total percent change in each of the four time periods ranged from a low of 1.6 percent (1,039 km2) between 1973 and 1980 to a high of 3.4 percent (2,229 km2) between 1992 and 2000. When annualized, the rates of change ranged from a low of 0.2 percent (148 km2) per year between 1973 and 1980 to a high of 0.5 percent (317 km2) per year between 1986 and 1992 (table 3; fig. 5). Net change by time period for all land-use/land-cover classes are presented in figure 6. Grassland/shrubland accounted for 63.5 percent (41,030 km2) of the ecoregion in 1973. By 2000, an additional 1.7 percent (1,104 km2) of the ecoregion had converted into grassland/shrubland. Forest covered 18.3 percent (11,861 km2) of the ecoregion in 1973 and had a net decrease during the study period of 3.5 percent (421 km2). Agriculture covered 11.0 percent (7,115 km2) of the land cover in 1973 and had a net decrease of 12.9 percent (920 km2) during the study period (table 4). Net change doesn't always tell the whole story of change. Gross change, the area gained and lost by individual land-cover classes during each period, shows that, Figure 2. Headwaters of Missouri River in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion. A, Satellite image showing Jefferson and Madison Rivers coming together to form Missouri River. Downstream from junction, note Gallatin River also joining Missouri River. B, View to west of junction of Jefferson and Madison Rivers. Photograph by Terry Sohl, 1999. Figure 3. View of Trident Mine, Montana. Photograph by Terry Sohl, 1999. N

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Chapter 6—Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion 79 during the entire study period, individual classes fluctuated to a greater degree than net-change values reflect. This increased amount of gross change can be further explained by the top two land-cover conversions. Overall, the top two conversions between 1973 and 2000 were agriculture to grassland/shrubland (2,918 km2) and grassland/shrubland to agriculture (1,972 km2) (table 5). The mechanical disturbance of forest by logging was the third most common conversion during the study period (371 km2). The fourth and fifth most common conversions were forest to grassland/shrubland (344 km2) and grassland/shrubland to forest (301 km2), respectively. Grassland/shrubland to agriculture was the most common conversion in the first two time periods (1973-1980, 1980-1986), but this reversed in the last two time periods (1986-1992, 1992-2000) when agriculture to grassland/shrubland was the top conversion. This ecoregion has little developed land, and land-cover conversion to developed was very minor in all time periods. When many of the valleys and prairies throughout the Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion were first homesteaded, farms and ranches sprang up, and some of them are still in existence (Malone, 1996). In the areas around Butte, Anaconda, and Deer Lodge, mining once brought great wealth to southwestern Montana. Towns like Virginia City, Nevada City, Bannack, and Coolidge formed around the search for gold, silver, and other minerals mined from the area (Malone, 1996). In its heyday, the Anaconda Mine was the richest mine on Earth. Many of the mining towns disappeared almost as quickly as they sprang up, whereas others stood the test of time and are still small towns today. Today (2012), the area around Anaconda, Butte, and the whole Upper Clark Fork River District are part of an Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site (Diamond, 2005). The ranching industry began about the same time as the mining industry. Cattle and sheep were raised to feed the miners and homesteaders, often replacing herds of buffalo and elk. Today (2012), ranching remains an important industry (fig. 7). Figure 5. Estimates of land-cover change per time period, normalized to annual rates of change for all 30 Western United States ecoregions (gray bars). Estimates of change for Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion are represented by red bars in each time period. Area, as percent of ecoregion CD SRK ANMP MA CBR WB WUM SBR MBR CLRP ANMM SN SCM NBR BLM CRK MVFP SRB MRK CLMP SCCCOW KM NC ECSF NRK WV CR PL Ecoregion EXPLANATION Change in one time period Change in two time periods Change in three time periods Change in four time periods Change in four time periods Figure 4. Overall spatial change in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion (MVFP; darker bars) compared with that of all 30 Western United States ecoregions (lighter bars). Each horizontal set of bars shows proportion of ecoregion that changed during one, two, three, or four time periods; highest level of spatial change in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion (four time periods) labeled for clarity. See table 3 for years covered by each time period. See appendix 2 for key to ecoregion abbreviations. 1973 to 1980 1980 to 1986 1986 to 1992 1992 to 2000 Average annual change, as percent of ecoregion Time period

80 Status and Trends of Land Change in the Western United States—1973 to 2000 In the 1970s, global demand for wheat increased greatly, and rangeland and other grassland that had not previously been broken was planted with wheat. This trend continued into the 1980s as low-interest bank loans and tax credits for breaking new ground—also known as "sodbusting"—provoked speculators and investors to enter into farming (fig. 8). The trend of purchase, plow, and resell was also bolstered by National Farm Program incentives, such as diversion payments and deficiency payments (Watts and others, 1983). In the mid-1980s, the price of wheat plummeted as the world supplies became saturated, and farmers, both old and new, wanted out of farming. In 1986, the Conservation Reserve Program was started, in which farmers were paid to retire many of the fields broken in the 1970s (Leistritz and others, 2002). These national trends were seen to some degree in the Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion, with increases in agricultural land until 1986 and then declines in agricultural land as it converted back to grassland/shrubland between 1986 and 2000. Figure 8. Large farm operation with granaries and numerous outbuildings in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion. Photograph by Terry Sohl, 1999. Figure 6. Normalized average net change in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion by time period for each land-cover class. Bars above zero axis represent net gain, whereas bars below zero represent net loss. Note that not all land-cover classes shown in explanation may be represented in figure. See appendix 3 for definitions of land-use/land-cover classifications. Figure 7. Sheep grazing in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion. Photograph by Terry Sohl, 1999. −2 −1 1973-1980 1980-1986 1986-1992 1992-2000 Area changed, as percent of ecoregion Time period Water Developed Mechanically disturbed Mining Barren Forest Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Wetland Nonmechanically disturbed Ice/Snow EXPLANATION LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CLASS

Chapter 6—Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion 81 Table 2. Percentage of Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion land cover that changed at least one time during study period (1973-2000) and associated statistical error. [Most sample pixels remained unchanged (91.9 percent), whereas 8.1 percent changed at least once throughout study period] Number of changes Percent of ecoregion Margin of error Lower bound (%) Upper bound (%) Standard error (%) Relative error (%) Overall spatial change Table 1. Population change in 17 Montana counties between 1970 and 2000 (from Forstall, 1995). County Total change, # of persons Change (Percent) Metropolitan counties Carbon County 7,080 8,099 8,080 9,552 2,472 Yellowstone County 87,367 108,035 113,419 129,352 41,985 Missoula County 58,263 76,016 78,687 95,802 37,539 Rural counties Beaverhead County 8,187 8,186 8,424 9,202 1,015 Deer Lodge County 15,652 12,518 10,278 9,417 − 6,235 − 39.8 Fergus County 12,611 13,076 12,083 11,893 − 718 − 5.7 Flathead County 39,460 51,966 59,218 74,471 35,011 Gallatin County 32,505 42,865 50,463 67,831 35,326 Jefferson County 5,238 7,029 7,939 10,049 4,811 Lake County 14,445 19,056 21,041 26,507 12,062 Lewis and Clark County 33,281 43,039 47,495 55,716 22,435 Meagher County 2,122 2,154 1,819 1,932 − 190 − 9.0 Park County 11,197 12,660 14,562 15,694 4,497 Powell County 6,660 6,958 6,620 7,180 Ravalli County 14,409 22,493 25,010 36,070 21,661 Silver Bow County 41,981 38,092 33,941 34,606 − 7,375 − 17.6 Teton County 6,116 6,491 6,271 6,445

82 Status and Trends of Land Change in the Western United States—1973 to 2000 Table 4. Estimated area (and margin of error) of each land-cover class in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion, calculated five times between 1973 and 2000. See appendix 3 for definitions of land-cover classifications.

Water Developed Mechanically disturbed Mining Barren Forest Grassland/ Shrubland Agriculture Wetland Nonmechanically disturbed

% +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− % +/− Area, in percent stratum Net change −0.7 −1.4 Gross change Area, in square kilometers 3,915 5,611 11,861 4,197 41,030 7,288 7,115 4,094 3,915 5,611 11,834 4,172 40,811 7,261 7,356 4,262 3,915 5,611 11,600 4,062 40,357 7,187 8,001 4,390 3,916 5,611 11,403 4,023 41,379 7,132 7,098 3,426 3,917 5,610 11,441 4,060 42,134 7,345 6,194 2,431 Net change − 3 − 421 1,104 2,152 − 920 2,195 Gross change 3,509 2,446 3,297 2,461 Table 3. Raw estimates of change in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion land cover, computed for each of four time periods between 1973 and 2000, and associated error at 85-percent confidence level. [Estimates of change per period normalized to annual rate of change for each period] Period Total change (% of ecoregion) Margin of error Lower bound (%) Upper bound (%) Standard error (%) Relative error (%) Average rate (% per year) Estimate of change, in percent stratum 1973-1980 1980-1986 1986-1992 1992-2000 Estimate of change, in square kilometers 1973-1980 1,039 1,387 1980-1986 1,193 1,652 1986-1992 1,903 1,095 2,998 1992-2000 2,229 1,680 3,909 1,067

Chapter 6—Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion 83 Table 5. Principal land-cover conversions in Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion, showing amount of area changed (and margin of error, calculated a 85-percent confidence level) for each conversion during each of four time periods and also during overall study period. See appendix 3 for definitions of land-cover classifications. [Values given for "other" class are combined totals of values for other land-cover classes not listed in that time period. Abbreviations: n/a, not applicable] Period From class To class Area changed Margin of error Standard error Percent of ecoregion Percent of all changes (km2) (+/− km2) (km2) 1973-1980 Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland Grassland/Shrubland Forest Mechanically disturbed Grassland/Shrubland Forest Grassland/Shrubland Other Other n/a n/a Totals 1,039 1980-1986 Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Forest Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland Forest Mechanically disturbed Grassland/Shrubland Forest Other Other n/a n/a Totals 1,193 1986-1992 Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland 1,236 1,056 Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Forest Mechanically disturbed Forest Grassland/Shrubland Mechanically disturbed Grassland/Shrubland Other Other n/a n/a Totals 1,903 1992-2000 Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland 1,288 1,552 Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland Forest Forest Mechanically disturbed Mechanically disturbed Grassland/Shrubland Other Other n/a n/a Totals 2,229 1973-2000 (overall) Agriculture Grassland/Shrubland 2,918 2,525 1,604 Grassland/Shrubland Agriculture 1,972 Forest Mechanically disturbed Forest Grassland/Shrubland Grassland/Shrubland Forest Other Other n/a n/a

Totals 6,364

84 Status and Trends of Land Change in the Western United States—1973 to 2000 References Cited Albrecht, D.E., 2008, Population brief—Trends in the western U.S., the State of Montana: Logan, Utah, Western Rural Development Center, accessed June 23, 2010, at http://wrdc. usu.edu/files/publications/publication/pub__8289905.pdf. Diamond, Jared, 2005, Collapse—How societies choose to fail or succeed: New York, Viking Penguin, 575 p. Forstall, R.L., comp., 1995, Montana—Population of counties by decennial census: 1900 to 1990: U.S. Bureau of the Census, accessed March 1, 2011, at http://www. census.gov/population/cencounts/mt190090.txt. Leistritz, F.L., Hodur, N.M., and Bangsund, D.A., 2002, Socioeconomic impacts of the conservation reserve program in North Dakota: Rural America, v. 17, no. 3, p. 57-65. Malone, M.P., 1996, Montana—A contemporary profile: Helena, Montana, American & World Geographic Publishing, 200 p. Omernik, J.M., 1987, Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: Annals of the Association of American Geographers, v. 77, no. 1, p. 118-125. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997, Descriptions of level III ecological regions for the CEC report on ecological regions of North America: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency database, accessed April 12, 2006, at http://www. epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/na_eco.htm#Downloads. Vogelmann, J.E, Howard, S.M., Yang, L., Larson, C.R., Wylie, B.K., and van Driel, N., 2001, Completion of the 1990s National Land Cover Data Set for the conterminous United States from Landsat Thematic Mapper data and ancillary data sources: Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, v. 67, p. 650-662. Watts, M.J., Bender, L.D., and Johnson, J.B., 1983, Economic incentives for converting rangeland to cropland: Bozeman, Montana State University, Cooperative Extension Service Bulletin 1302, 26 p. Woods, A.J., Omernik, J.M., Nesser, J.A., Shelden, J., and Azevedo, S.H., 1999, Ecoregions of Montana: U.S. Geological Survey Ecoregion Map Series, scale 1:1,500,000, available at http://rockyweb.cr.usgs. gov/outreach/mapcatalog/environmental.html.